Finding New Land: How to Spot the Tailwinds That Create New Market Opportunities

The most common mistake founders make is building in a market that already exists instead of building on a platform or trend that’s creating new market. Alex Jew, founder of TikTok precursor Musical.ly, called it “new land”—a digital space where few people are optimizing yet, where the rules aren’t written, where early adopters haven’t figured out the playbook.

Mercedes Bent, partner at Lightspeed and co-founder of Premise, has built a framework for spotting new land before it becomes obvious. And the pattern she’s discovered is that new land always comes from one of five sources: technology tailwinds, regulatory shifts, cultural changes, geographic trends, or macroeconomic events.

“My biggest advice to builders is to identify a tailwind or a current through one of those sources,” she explains. “Because when a tailwind happens, it creates new land.”

Technology Tailwinds: The Latest Capability Shift

The most obvious tailwind is a new technology becoming widely available. Think mobile phones making instant ride-hailing possible. Or AI models becoming capable enough to handle unstructured voice data.

When ChatGPT launched in late 2022, it created a technology tailwind. We’re in year three or four now of that tailwind being actionable. Founders are building products that literally could not have existed before because the AI wasn’t good enough.

But here’s the key: the technology has to be new enough that the answer to “why wasn’t this startup founded five years ago?” isn’t “because someone would have already done it.”

If your startup could have existed in 2015, ask yourself: why didn’t it? If the answer is “someone would have built it,” you’re in a crowded market, not new land.

Mercedes points to voice as an active technology tailwind right now. “Voice is one of the biggest behaviors that’s changing in digital platforms today.” For years, voice recognition was clunky. Now it’s reliable. That creates new land where voice-first products can exist—note takers, dictation tools, voice assistants—in ways they couldn’t before.

Regulatory Tailwinds: When Government Changes the Rules

Sometimes the government changes a rule and suddenly an entire market opens up.

Mercedes gives the example of retirement age regulations. If the government changes when people can retire, suddenly new products become necessary. New financial planning tools. New senior-focused products. New wealth management categories.

Think of how cannabis legalization created a market from nothing. Or how changing FDA regulations around telehealth opened an entire vertical during COVID.

These tailwinds are harder to predict, but they’re high-conviction when you see them coming. The tailwind is structural—it’s a rule change, not a trend that can reverse.

Cultural Tailwinds: When Society Collectively Believes Something New

The broader acceptance of same-sex marriage is a cultural tailwind. Twenty-five years ago, that wasn’t widely accepted in the US. Now it is. Products and services built on the assumption of acceptance—dating apps, wedding planning, financial product tailoring—became possible.

Mercedes also points to a major cultural shift happening now around wealth and ownership. The millennial generation realized they might not have access to home ownership like their parents did. That fundamental belief shift created a new cultural context.

“The percentage of homeowners that a million dollar salary earners who are renting instead of owning their home has increased exponentially in the last few years,” she observes. “I think that’s just a sign that people are not wanting to sign up for that bargain, that deal anymore.”

That cultural belief shift creates tailwinds for alternative wealth-building products: crypto, private equity access, stock trading, alternative assets. Products that would have been niche before now appeal to mainstream wealth builders.

Geographic Tailwinds: Markets Where Adoption Is Accelerating

Sometimes a trend is happening in one geography but not another, and that gap creates opportunity.

Voice usage in WhatsApp and messaging apps has been common outside the US for years. But in the US, digital has been text-based. Now that gap is closing. That creates a tailwind for voice-native products in the US.

Or think of how certain markets are ahead on mobile-first infrastructure. Building for those markets first, then expanding to others, is riding a geographic tailwind.

Macro Tailwinds: Big Economic Events That Reshape Demand

COVID is the clearest example. Overnight, everyone was remote. That created tailwinds for Zoom, for remote collaboration tools, for home office furniture. These weren’t new technologies—it was a macro shift in where work happened.

Now look at the AI bubble and the wealth of capital flowing into compute. That macro condition creates tailwinds for GPU-efficient models, for inference optimization, for data center efficiency.

Macro tailwinds are hard to time, but when you see one, you can ride it for years.

How to Use This Framework

Mercedes’s practical advice: look at your problem area and find a tailwind that aligns with it. “Your job as a builder is to get really close to the customer and start to make sure you fully understand their pain points, but also their latent problems that they don’t yet understand and then pair that up with what you want to build, what you’re passionate about, as well as where there’s actual opportunity in the broader market from a tailwind perspective.”

The winning move isn’t to invent the tailwind. It’s to find the tailwind that’s already happening, understand why customers are ready for your solution now (when they weren’t before), and build the product that satisfies that latent demand.

Every startup that won big did this. They didn’t create the tailwind. They recognized it before it became obvious and built the obvious product on top of it.

FAQ

How do I know if I’ve found a real tailwind or if I’m just chasing hype?

A real tailwind is structural—it’s a change in technology, rules, culture, or economics that’s unlikely to reverse. Hype is sentiment that can flip. Ask: “Is this tailwind more likely to strengthen or reverse in the next three years?” If it’s likely to reverse, it’s hype. If it’s likely to strengthen, it’s a tailwind.

What’s the difference between a tailwind and a trend?

A trend is what people think will happen. A tailwind is what’s actually changing. Trends can disappear when sentiment shifts. Tailwinds are structural changes that continue even when attention fades. Build on tailwinds, not trends.

Can I create a tailwind or do I have to find one that exists?

You can’t create a technology, regulatory, or macro tailwind—those are outside your control. But you can help accelerate cultural shifts by building something that embodies the future you see. That’s a higher-risk strategy. It’s safer to find a tailwind that’s already happening and ride it.

How many tailwinds do I need to find a winning market?

One strong tailwind is enough. Uber had mobile. ChatGPT had capable large language models. But some products ride multiple tailwinds simultaneously (e.g., remote work + consumer willingness to pay for SaaS + better APIs = Figma). The more tailwinds, the faster the market grows.

What if my problem area doesn’t align with any obvious tailwind?

That’s a warning sign. It might mean: (1) you haven’t identified the tailwind yet (do more research), (2) the market is mature and you’re fighting incumbents (hard path), or (3) the tailwind hasn’t started yet (risky timing). Consider pivoting to a different problem area where tailwinds are clearer.

Should I change my idea to match a tailwind, or find a tailwind that matches my idea?

Ideally, both. If you have an idea, look for a tailwind that justifies it. If the tailwind is strong and clear, be willing to adapt your idea to better capture it. Founders who are too attached to their original idea miss tailwinds. Founders who are too willing to pivot miss focus.

How far ahead of a tailwind should I start building?

Build when the tailwind is clearly visible and adoption is starting, not when it’s theoretical. The iPhone was three years into the smartphone trend, not the first. By the time you’re building, early users should already exist—not necessarily of your product, but of the category or behavior you’re riding.

What’s the biggest tailwind in 2026 that founders should be thinking about?

Mercedes sees AI agents and voice as the biggest technology tailwinds. Regulatory tailwinds around EU AI Act compliance and US AI policy are emerging. Cultural shifts around wealth (away from home ownership toward diversified assets) are accelerating. Macro tailwind: continued trillion-dollar compute spending. Pick one or two and build deeply.

How do I evaluate if a market is “new land” or a crowded space?

New land has: (1) an obvious gap (people are doing something in a hacky way), (2) few direct competitors, (3) clear tailwind that explains why it’s possible now, (4) early adopters showing usage signals. Crowded space has: (1) many well-funded competitors, (2) customers with established solution preferences, (3) mature playbooks, (4) slow adoption of new entrants. If you see three of four crowded signals, you’re not in new land.

Can I build on multiple tailwinds simultaneously or should I focus on one?

Focus on one primary tailwind. Riding multiple tailwinds sounds smart, but it spreads your execution thin. Pick the strongest tailwind aligned with your strength and go deep. You can expand to other tailwinds after you win the first market.

How long does a tailwind last before it becomes a mature market?

Typically 4-6 years from first adoption to maturity. That means you have 2-4 years to get significant market share before competition intensifies. Move fast. The winners in a new land market are usually established 2-3 years into the tailwind, not at the beginning or at the end.